🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.