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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.